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But worse than that for the Tories are the leader ratings. Either way, retirement is off the table: he needs his hands on the levers of power and particularly the Department of Justice, as noted earlier. Ed Miliband was an earnest, nice guy β€” a bit of a nerd who found it easier to finish a rubiks cube than a bacon sandwich. Two bets spring to mind on the back of this. Nor can he cancel the election be executive fiat. The A-G did not. Pondering recent UK General Elections, I noticed the winning party tended to be led by the candidate with more personality than their main rival, whether I were favourably inclined to them or not. The A-G, who reports to him, has a subtly different role: she too is responsible for parts of the criminal justice system β€” the CPS and the SFO, for instance. The other was for Ministers: this was rather more supportive of Mr C, commenting on his behaviour as a good parent, his reasonableness and the legality of what he did. But there is one aspect of it, largely ignored by the media, worth exploring. Now to Theresa May vs Jezza. At the time of writing, he was just over 2. Firstly, Sir Keir will not be the next PM; if he is up against Boris, unless he develops a side to his character we have yet to see possible this early in his stewardship , Boris wins. The reason why the A-G is not in Cabinet is to avoid mixing politics and legal advice. Law should not be a matter of politics but on constitutional matters it inevitably carried an element of it, particularly in the US. Codes of conduct have been stretched and unspoken assumptions no longer hold. One would hope not. Again, this would be a third term in fact but not in name. In the days of three, four or five tv channels only, and no internet, the effect was not really pronounced; Margaret Thatcher shaded Jim Callaghan, thrashed Michael Foot and was about even with Neil Kinnock, who was in turn considered to have way more personality than John Major. So where does he go? Scratch the surface, though, and things were not quite as rosy as they seemed; on personality her lead was just 5 points. Her role is to ensure that the government acts within the law, a critical obligation. No-one else in his family does. Unwittingly they had made their already more attractive opponent look even sexier. Not all bothered: the Home Secretary, responsible for the police who enforce the regulations Mr C was accused of breaching and who were busy drafting their own statement as the PM was writing his, wisely chose to remain silent. One is that he could simply ignore the constitution and carry on, with or without an election. It boiled down to Boris Johnson 79 or Jeremy Hunt They made the correct choice Relative to May, Corbyn was a charismatic maverick. Expect procedural attempts to suppress or enhance the partisan vote on an even greater scale than usual. She could not have known this would not happen, unlikely as this might be. Also voters have been under the constraints of lockdown since March and tempers might be getting frayed. One option is simply to install a proxy. It can be a difficult line to tread. Which is where the Senate election in November comes in. A more exciting bet is Next Labour Leader. But he might win β€” and that needs to be our starting point. The language and style has changed but so has its very nature. Hence his great incentive to win, at whatever cost and in whatever way. So government legal officers really need to be careful about opining on political controversies which might develop into legal cases. Ugliness will become the default; the expectation; the standard to which those in DC and those anywhere Trump turns his attention have to operate. The point is American politics has changed. I do not expect Donald Trump to win a second term and neither do punters betting hard cash. By September, Corbyn led in the charisma stakes by , and was favourite to be next PM, until…. The later Amendment only prevents someone from being elected to a third or subsequent term; it does not explicitly prevent them from serving as president, should they inherit it from another position β€” including the Vice Presidency. Along came Boris. Well, the A-G has to do the best for their client, the government not, nota bene, its individual members or those working for it , has to provide legal advice to ensure the government complies with the law but has an overriding duty to the courts β€” like any lawyer. Back to Mr. Surely they will learn their lesson if the dullard loses to the maverick yet again. We can probably expect a return to the Biden-Ukraine story that so nearly derailed his campaign in the primaries, alongside questions about his health, his behaviour and his legislative record. But that might be playing the game too much. The Lord Chancellor is responsible for the justice system: the courts, prisons and probation services, some of the structures through which justice is delivered. And if they can inherit the presidency, then it follows that they are not barred from being elected Vice President by the 12th Amendment. There were two broad templates doing the rounds: one for backbenchers expressing their disapproval, why they would not have behaved in the same way and why naughty Mr C should go. In September the Conservatives had a 6 point lead in the polls, and May led Corbyn by 58 points in net satisfaction. Trump is not a subtle beast and in terms of strategy we can reasonably expect an updated version of assertions that he delivered on his promises, assertions of greater things to come under him, and vicious half-truth attacks on his opponent. The other is that he could change the constitution and repeal the 22nd Amendment. You know the rest. If he does win a second term, it will grant even more legitimacy to his methods, his mind-set and β€” to the extent which someone so self-centred and short-termist has them β€” his policies. These methods, however, come with a price. If either the unemployment rate stays in double figures or the Covid cases fail to subside, we can reasonably expect more unrest into the summer and autumn as lives and livelihoods are lost. This is his first header. The Brexit Party won, Farage was rated 61 in June , trouble for the Tories… time for a new leader. On top of the regular campaign, Trump also has one immeasurable advantage over his unchallenged status as head of a political movement which incorporates the Republican Party but in truth is founded outside it. But he is no longer a player, not directly anyway, ever since his role as head of the judiciary was removed. First, a brief explanation. But it is precisely to avoid even the possibility of this that care needs to be taken by those with overall responsibility when commenting on potential legal matters. With a pet Attorney General and hence a tame Department of Justice, that gives him a lot of scope. There are two routes we should raise here simply in order to dismiss. In some cases e. It set me thinking that in a world of Reality tv, tiktok, snapchat, none of which I am a fan of , and general instant gratification, which I kind of am Starmer was too boring to be Prime Minister. Most might as well not have bothered. Making such a statement also potentially created another problem: if the CPS had got involved, might their decision have been influenced by the publicly expressed view of their boss? There are certainly those who disagree with that literal interpretation and assert that the intent of the Amendment was to prevent anyone serving more than ten years and that the 12th Amendment should be read in that context. Then, in the era of Sky tv, social media, and what some might say was a general cultural dumbing down, things start to change. Whether Trump accepts that he might be the legitimate target of such investigations is doubtful: he genuinely seems incapable of differentiating between his personal interests and his public role. The Government wanted to make the distinction between the incumbent safe pair of hands who had looked after the economy for over a decade, and a risky, lightweight, novice. Instead, he could go for the Putin option and switch the ticket, serving as notional Vice-President to Mike Pence but dominating the campaign and the administration. Most unwise. Which brings us to But that is not the end of the story. If there is a conflict between what the client wants and the law, the law wins. Left wing critics of Cameron accused the PM of resembling posh boy bully Lord Flashman, but, again, this was an error. Note the subtle difference in wording. So does charisma matter? Good times! Not all have managed this successfully: Peter Goldsmith did not exactly enhance his reputation with his advice over the legality of the Iraq war. For where Trump goes, his army of followers, online and in person, go too. Given all that, he has a tough task to win over enough swing voters, or to persuade enough current Biden-backers to stay at home, in order to gain victory. In the last four years, Trump has remodelled American politics: it norms and its methods. If Trump believed he needed to protect himself through a third term, could he do it? Very probably, yes.

The voting numbers are:. Here, we need to get a bit technical with the US constitution.

It a curious and sensitive mixture click here the political and legal. Isam, who works in the betting industry. Relatedly, while the unemployment figures dropped this week, the Meanwhile, his response to the protests following the death of George Floyd has overtly played to his base as well as having been largely ineffective.

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Otherwise, all prosecution decisions are made by the CPS.